THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE: A DISCRIMINATING ANALYSIS

THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE: A DISCRIMINATING ANALYSIS

This paper tests two variants of the political business cycle hypothesis. Annual data covering the years 1948-81 are analyzed using the technique of discriminant analysis to test for differences in the behavior of the inflation and unemployment rates during election as opposed to nonelection years a...

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Veröffentlicht in:Social science quarterly 1983-06, Vol.64 (2), p.398-403
1. Verfasser: WELLER, Barry R.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Business
Business/Businesses
Cycle/Cycles/Cyclical
Discriminants
Economic conditions
Economic fluctuations
Economic policy
Inflation rates
Observational research
Political business cycles
Political parties
Political/Politically/ Politicalization (see also Politics)
Politics
Research Notes
Statistical significance
Unemployment
Unemployment rates
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Zusammenfassung:This paper tests two variants of the political business cycle hypothesis. Annual data covering the years 1948-81 are analyzed using the technique of discriminant analysis to test for differences in the behavior of the inflation and unemployment rates during election as opposed to nonelection years and under Democratic as opposed to Republican administrative leadership. Statistically significant behavioral differences are found in the former case but not in the latter.
ISSN:0038-4941
1540-6237