Risks, Costs, and Benefits of Fluorocarbon Regulation

The belief is widespread that fluorocarbons threaten the stratospheric ozone layer and influence climate. This review reports the main findings of a 1980 study of the economic aspects of fluorocarbon regulation and of alternative regulatory strategies. It is hypothesized that regulation would do more harm than good. Eventual ozone-depletion due to fluorocarbons has been reduced approximately to zero in recent trials due to new experimental data on the pertinent chemical reactions, and climatic effects could imply either net benefits or costs. Analysis of buildup of risk over time suggests that the optimal time for a decision on regulation will be about 10 years in the future. In the meantime, further research will narrow the uncertainties. A net benefit from unregulated emission of fluorocarbons can be anticipated due mainly to energy-related benefits of climatic warming. Uncertainties in the technical aspects of stratospheric chemistry and physics are so great that analysis of the problem is difficult. There is a weak case for a proposed ceiling on fluorocarbon production, but the main danger is that one or more unexpectedly extreme harmful effects of the material might materialize.