When the Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennnial Sect

Results are reported of an ethnographic study of a millennial Baha'i sect whose leader predicted that the world would be devastated by nuclear war on 29 Apr 1980. Data from participant observation & interviews (N = 41) during the following 8 months were gathered in the 4 states where the group's leader had a substantial following. The purpose was to replicate Leon Festinger's, H. W. Riecken's, & Stanley Schachter's classic study, When Prophecy Fails (New York: Harper & Row, 1956). They found that prophetic disconfirmation was followed by an increase in conviction & heightened efforts to recruit new believers. Contrary findings are presented, & social-psychological factors accounting for the differences are explored. It is argued that reactions to prophetic failure are shaped less by psychological forces than by social circumstances existing at the time of disconfirmation. Modified HA.