Violent Recidivism and Chronicity in the 1958 Philadelphia Cohort

In the present study the relationship between chronicity and violent recidivism is analyzed using longitudinal data from the 1958 Philadelphia cohort. The data reaffirm prior research findings that a small cadre of offenders commits the majority of crimes which involve serious harm to the community, yet it was found that the violent offenders accounted for a large share of the more serious index offenses. In addition, among violent delinquents there is a greater proportion of chronic offenders than among nonviolent delinquents. Chronic offenders were more likely than nonchronic offenders to repeat a violent offense. Violent recidivists also committed a large proportion of nonviolent index offenses. One might imply from the results of this study that a policy of selective incapacitation of high-rate offenders would substantially reduce the amount of violent crime as well as nonviolent crime.