Toward a Theory of Demographic Development

The theory of demographic transition is criticized because it does not adequately describe the rising fertility trends which are characteristic of countries at the early stages of SE development. It is further criticized because it fails to indicate when present fertility trends will begin to fall,...

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Veröffentlicht in:Economic development and cultural change 1971-01, Vol.19 (2), p.257-276
1. Verfasser: Tabbarah, Riad B.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:The theory of demographic transition is criticized because it does not adequately describe the rising fertility trends which are characteristic of countries at the early stages of SE development. It is further criticized because it fails to indicate when present fertility trends will begin to fall, which is important for pop projections, & the basic reasons why they should fall, which is important for pop policy. A model of demographic development is therefore presented that attempts to eliminate these shortcomings & to relate fertility trends to the process of SE development. A number of implications, particularly for pop policy, follow from this model. Eg, it is shown that FP policies may have a signif effect on fertility only at a given stage of demographic development so that their universal application has necessarily led to a waste of valuable resources. Situations where FP programs can make a contribution to fertility decline can be identified so that re-evaluation of FP policies is not only useful but also possible. AA.
ISSN:0013-0079
1539-2988
DOI:10.1086/450483