Is There Any Potential in Trade in Sensitive Industrial Products Between the CEECs and the EU?

No compelling evidence is found that actual imports by the EU of sensitive products from the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) are significantly depressed relative to imports of such products from other supplies and relative to total imports. In general, a surge in EU imports of such products is not expected to follow the additional integration of the CEECs with the EU. There is no need in the EU to treat the sensitive sectors as being different from other sectors, so that, for example, relatively long transition periods for these industries to adjust to the next enlargement of the EU would not appear to be necessary. Some evidence is found to suggest that more open access to the EU market for certain CEECs is likely to have a greater impact upon the exports of other CEECs than upon the exports and output of existing members of the EU. This suggests that a key element of the approach of the Commission to the next enlargement should be to ensure that the chosen policy of differentiation among countries in Central and Eastern Europe does not lead to discrimination between them in their access to the EU market.