Gubernatorial popularity in three states: A preliminary model

This article develops and tests a model of gubernatorial popularity. Using data from three state polls in California, Iowa and Minnesota, we examine the relative importance of state-level and national-level political and economic developments for approval ratings of governors in these states. We also investigate the degree to which governors are held accountable for the performance of their party when it controls the White House. We demonstrate that the popularity of governors fluctuates directly with the president's popularity and the performance of the economy under the president's stewardship. The evidence of the relative impact of state and national level economic indicators on gubernatorial approval is mixed and in California only there is evidence of a “Honeymoon” effect.