Decision Making during International Crises: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome?

This study investigated the hypothesis that high-quality decision-making procedures during crises are associated with better crisis outcomes than are defective decision-making procedures. Presidential decision making during 19 international crises since World War II was examined for seven symptoms of defective decision making proposed by Janis and Mann (1977). Crisis outcomes were rated by outside experts in terms of their effect on U.S. vital interests and on international conflict. Results indicated that crisis outcomes tended to have more adverse effects on U.S. interests and were more likely to increase international conflict when the decision-making process was characterized by a large number of symptoms. Alternative explanations are considered and the implications of these results for improving decision makers' procedures are discussed.