Ankara's Baku-Centered Transcaucasia Policy: Has It Failed?

Turkey's initiatives towards Azerbaijan have been low-key because of Ankara's traditionally cautious diplomacy and its relatively modest short-term goals in the Transcaucasus. Yet the Turkish government's long-term goals are ambitious and include: 1) support for Azerbaijan's independence; 2) support for Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh; 3) prevention or restriction of Russian presence and influence in the region; 4) participation in Azerbaijani oil production and export; 5) a friendly-but not necessarily pan-Turkic-Azerbaijani administration.