ACADEMIC PUBLICATION, MARKET SIGNALING, AND SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH DECISIONS

Publication is an essential scientific activity, but dangers arise when it is the primary signal of professional ability. This paper presents a simple model of screening in academic job markets. Signaling pressures may bias research decisions toward orthodox, low‐risk projects, denying science the bold hypotheses and vigorous competition necessary for significant advance. Screening mechanisms help explain patterns of development noted by some historians of science as well as differences in these patterns across disciplines. The paper concludes with some comments on signaling and scientific change in economics.