Economic Development and the Growth of the Male Working Force of Panama, 1950-1960

It is asked: In what industries did the youth who first entered the LF after 1950 find jobs? How much movement was there between agriculture & non- agriculture during the decade? Results were derived from the 1950 & 1960 pop censuses of Panama; using data on industr composition of M's by 5-yr age groups from the 2 censuses, the mobility model developed by A. J. Jaffe & R. O. Carleton (see SA 1047) was applied. It was found that an estimated 79,900 youths entered the Panamanian LF between 1950 & 1960; they constituted about 39.6% of all M's in the LF in 1950. Deaths & retirements combined removed 15.7% of the M's from the LF. The net was an increase of 23.9% in the M LF between 1950 & 1960. 66% of the estimated number of new entries went into agri. The 27,800 youths who entered nonagri'al jobs during the decade were the number needed by the growing nonagri'al sector. The 52,100 youths who entered agriculture did so mainly because there were no jobs for them in the nonagri'al sector. There was an estimated net movement of 10,600 M's from agriculture to nonagri'al jobs during the decade. Given the present high birth rates, annual econ growth of 5.5% will provide job opportunities for less than 50% of the new entries. An mean/average annual rate of econ growth of 10% or more might be required in order to provide jobs for all the new entires. The dual problem faced by Panama, & many other countries similarly situated, is: (a) how to force the economy to grow at rates approximating 10% per yr, decade after decade, & (b) how to lower the rate of pop growth so that there will be fewer new entires into tomorrow's LF. Modified AA.