The Asymmetric Impact of Inflation on Presidential Approval

This article examines the impact of unexpected inflation on U.S. presidential approval levels for the period 1953–96. Unlike most previous considerations of economic expectations and presidential approval, we find clear evidence that unexpected inflation affects approval, but it does so in an asymmetric fashion. Higher than expected inflation has a negative impact on presidential approval, and VAR results indicate that the effects linger for more than two years. In contrast, lower than expected inflation has a negligible impact on presidential approval.