The Credibility Factor in Elections: Evidence from Britain's Nationwide Building Society's Vote against Conversion

Why did members of Nationwide Building Society vote against converting to a bank and, by doing so, turn down a £2,000 windfall each? The findings of a survey of Nationwide members show that voters make more sophisticated and calculated choices than previously believed. In the Nationwide case, the voting decision was a calculation of costs and benefits as well as an evaluation of the likelihood that they would in fact be realised. The inclusion of a likelihood variable, which is based on information and attitude towards risk, provides a more realistic approach to understanding voting in rational choice terms.