Party Realignment and Voter Transition in Italy, 1987-1996

Between 1987 and 1996, the Italian party system experienced a major realignment. The political alternatives that dominated the postwar period dissolved, and new party and voter alignments emerged. This analysis employs a recently compiled data archive and a new ecological inference technique to examine voter transitions during the period. The disintegration of the ruling party coalition and the appearance of new party alternatives from the center of the analysis. The research highlights the importance of nonvoters, a relatively recent phenomenon in Italian elections, as a precursor of pending party change as well as holding the key to a resolution of the current flux. The new ecological analysis technique generates more robust results than previous techniques and also avoids the pitfalls of survey research.