The Impact of Policy Voting on the Electoral Fortunes of Senate Incumbents

This paper explores the effect of the policy stances of U.S. senators on their electoral fortunes. More specifically, we argue that the degree to which a senator's voting record is inconsistent (ideologically discrepant) with the policy preferences of his or her constituents is of consequence in a reelection bid. The effects of state size, party competition, and national political conditions on marginality are tested along with ideological discrepancy. Each of these factors is linked to marginality except state size. However, the impact of senators' roll-call behavior on the outcome of their reelection bid is modest. Finally, we find that ideological discrepancy is associated with marginality only in more urbanized states which have a higher than average proportion of well-educated voters.