Opinion Polls and the American Election Process

This article question what are the causes of inaccuracies in opinion polls, and what is the political impact of opinion polls and their inherent risk of inaccuracies. Examples are provided of opinion polls that failed to predict the outcome of the 2008 Democratic primary elections. The author considers the strong US traditions of polling and ties to the academic community, and examines special issues present in American politics and the nomination process for the 2008 election to explain low polling accuracy. Statistical and methodological premises of opinion polls are discussed. It is suggested that the issue of race had an impact on respondents' willingness to answer truthfully questions about their candidate of choice in primary election opinion polls. A discussion of media presentation of polling results is included and it is argued that media organizations are increasingly ordering exclusive polls as opposed to reporting aggregate results from multiple polls conducted by independent sources. The bandwagon theory of the effect polling influencing results is discussed. The article refers to the American Association for Public Opinion Research special panel to shed light on pre-election polling. It is concluded that opinion polls will continue to have an important role in election reporting. References. E. Sundby