(Change in) turnout and (change in) the left share of the vote

This paper assesses the relationships between turnout and the left share of the vote, and between change in turnout and change in the left share for three data sets: national elections in 23 OECD countries 1960–2002; European Parliament elections; and British constituencies 1955–2001. The idea that higher turnout benefits the left seems to be largely mythical. There is a positive correlation between turnout and the left share in national elections across countries, but it is likely to be the result of both variables declining independently rather than a causal connection. There has also been a positive correlation between change in turnout and change in the left share of the vote in British constituencies since 1983, but only where Labour started first or second and so partly for strategic reasons.