Assessing the assessment: The 1999 national intelligence estimate of the ballistic missile threat

Examines the US National Intelligence Council report, "Foreign missile developments and the ballistic missile threat to the United States through 2015" (Sept. 1999), indexed in PAIS International, 2000. Overestimating ICBM threat from developing countries, underestimating threat from existing major arsenals, countering guided missile defenses, forward-based threats, and implications for defense systems.