How much did droughts matter? Linking rainfall and GDP growth in Zimbabwe

Since 2000, Zimbabwe's government, as well as other international aid organizations, have repeatedly blamed the country's sharp economic downturn on persistent and severe droughts. Indeed, past research has shown strong links between rainfall and maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that the lack of rainfall is an attractive culprit for the recent collapse of Zimbabwe's agriculture-based economy. This article probes this hypothesis further, by examining primary data from 38 countrywide rainfall stations during the 1960–1961/2002–2003 time-frame, in order to put the recent economic decline in better historical context. The article finds little evidence that Zimbabwe's recent economic difficulties were caused by either low or erratic rainfall, suggesting that the recent collapse of the economy is far more likely a result of government mismanagement.