One administration, two voices: US China policy during Bush's first term

The most intriguing thing about the China policy of the Bush Administration during its first term is not that it did not follow up with its campaign promises. Rather it is the continued contradiction and inconsistency in conceptualization and implementation. Throughout the past 4 years, one heard two different voices from the Administration: one advocates a candid, constructive and cooperative relationship with China; the other insists on the need to restrain and contain China. Since 9/11, against the backdrop of the war against terror, the first voice prevailed over the latter. However, while the latter voice was largely subdued, it did reassert itself at times and on certain issues, and threatens to come back when circumstances change. Four years after the Bush Administration came into office, the question whether China is a competitor or a partner still remained unanswered. This paper will first review the evolution of Bush Administration's China policy during its first term. Then it will try to analyze the major factors shaping the development. Finally, it will speculate on the prospect for development of the relationship in Bush's second term.