Do the Asian Drivers Undermine Export-oriented Industrialization in SSA?

An increase in outward orientation in general, and in export-oriented manufacturing in particular is widely indicated as a suitable developmental path for SSA. The logic for this is drawn both from the demonstration effect of China and the earlier generation of Asian NICs, and from theory. However, the entry of China (and to a lesser extent India) into the global economy as a significant exporter of manufactures poses severe problems for export-oriented growth in SSA. This can be seen from SSA’s recent experience in the clothing and textile sectors, often considered to be the first step in export-oriented manufacturing growth. Without sustained trade preferences over Asian producers, SSA’s clothing and textile industry will be largely excluded from global markets and face significant threats in its domestic market. This has generalizable implications for other sectors, and for other sets of low income producers.