Psychiatric and psychosocial predictors of substance use disorders among adolescents: Longitudinal study

Few studies have prospectively examined psychosocial and psychiatric predictors of adolescent substance use disorders simultaneously. To identify psychosocial and psychiatric predictors of substance use disorders in adolescence. School children aged 12 years (s.d.=0.3) free from any substance use disorder at grade 7 (n=428) were assessed in three consecutive years, using a standardised psychiatric interview. Their baseline psychosocial information was also collected. The outcome was the onset age of a substance use disorder. The Cox regression model was used for data analysis. The most significant predictive factors for adolescent substance use disorder included male gender, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder and sibling use of tobacco. Three protective factors against such morbidity included living in a household with two parents, a good academic grade at grade 7 and objection to the use of substances. Early intervention for disruptive behaviour disorders and specific psychosocial risk factors might prevent substance use disorders in early adolescence.