Fragmented fiscal policy

This paper explores on a panel of 19 OECD countries the role of fragmentation in determining fiscal outcomes over the 1970–95 period. We first define the notion of fragmentation of fiscal policy-making as the degree to which the costs of a dollar of aggregate expenditure are internalized by individual decision-makers. Empirically, this notion has two key logical components: the number of decision-makers and the rules of the game, or the budget process. In turn, the number of decision makers can refer to the number of parties in a coalition, or the number of ministers in the cabinet. We test all these determinants against each other, and against perhaps the oldest explanation of all, ideology. We show that cabinet size and, to a lesser degree, coalition size and ideology, are significant and robust determinants of fiscal outcomes. In particular, transfers are the budget items most affected by these factors.