Illicit Drug Use and Health: Analysis and Projections of New York City Birth Outcomes Using a Kalman Filter Model

A structural time-series model is fit to race-specific monthly rates of low birth weight in New York City from 1963 through 1990. An examination is made to determine whether the upturn in 1984 is consistent with a structural shift in the long-term trend of low birth weight. The rate of low birth weight that would have been observed had the upturn in 1984 not occurred is then projected. Finally, data on race-specific rates of prenatal illicit drug use, prenatal care, and smoking that are available from 1978 are added to determine the relative contribution of each. With this model, answers are provided to consequences and costs of various trajectories in illicit drug use and low birth weight.