A model of the world uranium market

In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract arrangements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources.