A statistical note on possible institutional regimes in budget policy

This note makes a statistical case for a shift in the regime that generates fiscal policy. Various tests clearly indicate a point of regime delineation in 1975. This year coincides with the beginning of federal budget development under the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. Single equation and multiple equation (VAR) representations are used to describe the development of fiscal policy. Also, preliminary estimates of a reduced form model and the target information content of fiscal policy are presented.