Predictability and Prediction

Predictability and Prediction

A result can be regarded as routinely predictable when it has recurred consistently under a known range of different conditions. This depends on the previous analysis of many sets of data, drawn from different populations. There is no such basis of extensive experience when a prediction is derived f...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in society Statistics in society, 1993-01, Vol.156 (2), p.167-206
Hauptverfasser: Ehrenberg, A. S. C., Bound, J. A.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
between‐group analysis
Boyles law
Brands
choice of model
conditions of observation
Cooking oils
Data analysis
Datasets
Empiricism
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasts
General topics
induction
Least squares
many sets of data
Mathematics
Modeling
parsimony
physics
Predictability
Probability and statistics
Sciences and techniques of general use
social science
Social sciences
Statistics
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:A result can be regarded as routinely predictable when it has recurred consistently under a known range of different conditions. This depends on the previous analysis of many sets of data, drawn from different populations. There is no such basis of extensive experience when a prediction is derived from the analysis of only a single set of data. Yet that is what is mainly discussed in our statistical texts. The paper discusses the design and analysis of studies aimed at achieving routinely predictable results. It uses two running case history examples.
ISSN:0964-1998
1467-985X
DOI:10.2307/2982727