Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse

Economists, Soviet Growth Slowdown and the Collapse

Kontorovich documents and analyzes the failure of economists to foresee the virtual end of economic growth in the Soviet Union from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. He discusses factors behind the persistent overprediction of economic growth rates in the Soviet Union, the impact of the forecasters...

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Veröffentlicht in:Europe-Asia studies 2001-07, Vol.53 (5), p.675-695
1. Verfasser: Kontorovich, Vladimir
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Analytical forecasting
Bias
Business cycles
CIA
Economic conditions
Economic forecasting
Economic forecasting models
Economic forecasts
Economic growth
Economic growth models
Economic growth rate
Economic recessions
Economic trends
Economists
Error
Gross national product
Industrial production
Soviet studies
State fragmentation
U.S.S.R
United States Congress
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:Kontorovich documents and analyzes the failure of economists to foresee the virtual end of economic growth in the Soviet Union from the late 1970s to the early 1980s. He discusses factors behind the persistent overprediction of economic growth rates in the Soviet Union, the impact of the forecasters' behavior as a group, the methods they use, and the information at their disposal.
ISSN:0966-8136
1465-3427
DOI:10.1080/09668130120060224