Determinants of Angola's real exchange rate, 1992-2002

This paper estimates Angola's equilibrium parallel market real exchange rate, during the period 1992-2002, taking into account possible structural shifts in the data. Our results fail to support the purchasing power parity hypothesis and indicate that two exogenous variables-the price of oil and the foreign interest rate-explain most of the variation in the equilibrium real exchange rate. These results contrast with the tenet that the exchange rate is mainly influenced by rapid monetary growth, and we suggest that the current flexible exchange rate regime is likely to be more appropriate for Angola than a fixed exchange rate regime.