Applications of Bayesian Methods to OD Evaluation and Decision Making

This paper provides an introductory discussion of Bayesian statistics and their applicability to OD evaluation. Bayesian statistics provide an alternative to traditional statistics in the evaluation of OD interventions. Bayesian statistics allow for the explicit quantification of prior probabilities and give management and consultants control over the determination of the practical significance of an intervention. This makes Bayesian evaluation methods a more flexible tool for investigating dynamic interventions in systems. A discussion of the role of subjectivity in Bayesian statistical analysis and examples of how Bayesian evaluation strategies may be used in OD settings are provided.