The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply‐driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter‐regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley‐model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.