The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate

This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation b...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of money, credit and banking credit and banking, 2009-03, Vol.41 (2-3), p.529-542
1. Verfasser:	SINCLAIR, TARA M.
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Bank credit business cycle Business cycles C32 Coefficients Correlation analysis correlations Credit cyclical unemployment E23 E24 E32 Economic conditions Economic fluctuations Estimates Evaluation Forecasts and trends Gross domestic product Macroeconomics Market trend/market analysis NAIRU Natural rate of unemployment Okuns law Output rate Paperboard Random walk Real gross domestic product Shorter Papers, Discussions, and Letters Structural unemployment Studies trend GDP U.S.A Unemployment Unemployment rates United States economic conditions unobserved components
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	This paper estimates the permanent and transitory movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate and the relationships between them. The results suggest that permanent movements in U.S. output and the unemployment rate are important for explaining overall fluctuations. Further, the correlation between changes in these series arises in large part due to the relationship between their permanent components.
ISSN:	0022-2879 1538-4616
DOI:	10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00220.x