Future Patterns of Electricity Development in Japan: Implications for ASEAN Hydrocarbon Exports

This study presents estimates of Japan's future power generation mix under four different policy scenarios. These four scenarios include: (1) the Ministry of International Trade and Industry's (MITI) plan; (2) a programme of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxide (NOₓ) emissions abatement; (3) a moratorium on construction of new nuclear power plants; and (4) a combination of emissions abatement and constrained nuclear power generation. A multi-objective programming model was utilized to derive future energy requirements for the power sector. The analysis shows that the impact of different plans for power generation in Japan will be minimal on ASEAN-Japan oil trade, but the liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from ASEAN may increase significantly under the emissions abatement and/or constrained nuclear power scenarios. If all the additional LNG required are imported from ASEAN, the region's export may rise by up to 24 per cent.