Estuarine surface water allocation: A case study on the interactive role of science in support of management

The inevitable need for freshwater to support the projected population growth along the ocean coast is an emerging issue of potential consequence to adjacent estuaries. A large and controversial water withdrawal/reservoir project in Virginia's coastal plain was the basis of science–management interactions that quantified the vulnerability of tidal freshwater nekton for a series of water withdrawal scenarios. Through progressive iterations of the regulatory review process, which in Virginia includes academic reviews of all aspects of projects proposed to affect the marine and estuarine environment, we developed a novel approach to modeling entrainment probabilities applicable to situations that lack a locally validated hydrodynamic model. The science/management interplay ultimately resulted in surface water allocation strategies that are balances to society and the affected natural environment. Model results showed that the probability of encounter (contact between an egg or larva and one or more units of the intake array) ranged from 1.71% under the conditions of a high river flow and low withdrawal rate to 99.99% under the conditions of a low river flow and high withdrawal rate. The collective body of scientific information was incorporated into regulatory conditions placed on water withdrawals that are designed to protect at least 95% of early life history stages within the intake array's zone of influence.