Forecasting the Development and Structure of the Russian Banking System

The Russian banking system's medium-term development prospects will reflect both macroeconomic factors and the monetary authorities' efforts to reform, stabilize, and deepen the banking system, to allow banks to play a larger role in the Russian economy. We will consider three basic scenarios for the development of the Russian banking system: optimistic, conservative (the baseline scenario), and pessimistic. All three scenarios assume there will be no large-scale, systemic crisis during the forecast period. The structure of the banking system depends on which scenario is realized.