A MODIS direct broadcast algorithm for mapping wildfire burned area in the western United States

Improved wildland fire emission inventory methods are needed to support air quality forecasting and guide the development of air shed management strategies. Air quality forecasting requires dynamic fire emission estimates that are generated in a timely manner to support real-time operations. In the regulatory and planning realm, emission inventories are essential for quantitatively assessing the contribution of wildfire to air pollution. The development of wildland fire emission inventories depends on burned area as a critical input. This study presents a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) – direct broadcast (DB) burned area mapping algorithm designed to support air quality forecasting and emission inventory development. The algorithm combines active fire locations and single satellite scene burn scar detections to provide a rapid yet robust mapping of burned area. Using the U.S. Forest Service Fire Sciences Laboratory (FiSL) MODIS-DB receiving station in Missoula, Montana, the algorithm provided daily measurements of burned area for wildfire events in the western U.S. in 2006 and 2007. We evaluated the algorithm's fire detection rate and burned area mapping using fire perimeter data and burn scar information derived from high resolution satellite imagery. The FiSL MODIS-DB system detected 87% of all reference fires > 4 km 2, and 93% of all reference fires > 10 km 2. The burned area was highly correlated ( R 2 = 0.93) with a high resolution imagery reference burn scar dataset, but exhibited a large over estimation of burned area (56%). The reference burn scar dataset was used to calibrate the algorithm response and quantify the uncertainty in the burned area measurement at the fire incident level. An objective, empirical error based approach was employed to quantify the uncertainty of our burned area measurement and provide a metric that is meaningful in context of remotely sensed burned area and emission inventories. The algorithm uncertainty is ± 36% for fires 50 km 2 in size, improving to ± 31% at a fire size of 100 km 2. Fires in this size range account for a substantial portion of burned area in the western U.S. (77% of burned area is due to fires > 50 km 2, and 66% results from fires > 100 km 2). The dominance of these large wildfires in burned area, duration, and emissions makes these events a significant concern of air quality forecasters and regulators. With daily coverage at 1-km 2 spatial resolution, and a quantified measureme