Prospective scenarios of nuclear energy evolution on the XXIst century over the world scale

Different world scenarios of nuclear energy development over the XXIst century are analyzed in this paper, by means of the EDF fuel cycle simulation code for nuclear scenario studies, TIRELIRE – STRATEGIE. Two nuclear demand scenarios are considered, and the performance of different nuclear strategies in satisfying these scenarios is analyzed and discussed, focusing on the maximum deployable capacity and the natural uranium consumption. Both thermal-spectrum systems (Pressurized Water Reactor, PWR, and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor, HTGR) and different designs of Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) are investigated. A sensitivity analysis on the FBR deployment date, Breeding Gain and fuel cycle options is also presented.