A behavior-oriented model for long-term coastal profile evolution: Validation, identification, and prediction

A behavior-oriented diffusion model, governing the time evolution of the cross-shore position of coastal profiles, is studied. Here, two time-independent, space-varying coefficients, which embody the relevant physical properties, are identified simultaneously. Two sets of real data, the first measured over 10 years at Duck, in NC (USA), the second obtained over 39 years measurements at Delfland (Holland), have been processed numerically by a suitable “inversion algorithm”, earlier developed by the authors. This is based on the minimization of a certain cost functional in order to identify both coefficients. The numerical results, obtained by solving the diffusion equation with the so-determined coefficients, favorably agree with the real data, which fact validates and calibrates somehow the diffusion model under investigation. A short-term prediction is finally obtained for coastal profiles, using such a model.