Patterns, timing and predictors of recurrence following pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: an international multicentre retrospective cohort study

Most patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) develop recurrence. No previous studies have investigated predictors of local-only recurrence following PD for PDAC. Our study aimed to determine timing, pattern and predictors of any-site and local-only recurrence following PD for PDAC. Patients who underwent PD for PDAC between June 2012 and May 2015 (29 centres, eight countries) were included. The primary outcome was recurrence pattern (none, local-only, distant-only or mixed local/distant). Data were collected on demographics, comorbidities, investigations, operation details, complications, histology, adjuvant therapies, recurrence and survival. Univariable tests and regression analysis investigated factors associated with any-site recurrence and local-only recurrence. Of the 866 patients, 573 (66 %) developed recurrence: 170 (20 %) developed local-only recurrence, 164 (19 %) developed mixed local/distant recurrence, and 239 (28 %) developed distant-only recurrence. Local-only or lung-only recurrence had a more favourable prognosis than other recurrence patterns. Predictors of any-site recurrence were preoperative biliary stenting, venous resection and poorly-differentiated, node-positive tumours. Predictors of local-only recurrence were preoperative radiological lymphadenopathy, well-differentiated tumours, fewer than 15 resected lymph nodes and intraoperative blood transfusion. Ensuring radical resection and avoiding intraoperative blood transfusion may reduce the risk of local-only recurrence following PD for PDAC.