The impact of fuel cell vehicles deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions through 2050: Evidence from 15 G20 countries

As global concern over the negative impacts of global warming, primarily caused by using passenger vehicles (PVs), the transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) is an essential alternative for reducing greenhouse (GHG) emissions. This research employs a bottom-up approach to analyze road vehicle fleet's GHG emissions. We calculated GHG emissions from PVs in 15 Group of Twenty (G20) countries based on four scenarios adopting the global HFCVs from 2024 to 2050. This paper introduces business-as-usual (BaU), moderate, aggressive, and non-HFCVs scenario. The results show that the aggressive scenario has the highest sales, estimated between 62,000 and 29.48 million vehicles by 2050, with global hydrogen market penetration rates 48.48%. Building on countries' respective national strategies, the findings highlight China and India as the leading markets for hydrogen demand, with Germany and Japan also showing significant interest. The aggressive scenario further demonstrates that transitioning from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and HFCVs can significantly reduce annual GHG emissions. Ultimately, this study finds that the transition to HFCVs could reduce emissions by up to 67.09% by 2050. [Display omitted] •Predict changes in energy consumption and GHG emissions resulting from the transition to hydrogen-fueled vehicles.•The aggressive scenario demonstrates that transitioning from ICEVs to BEVs, PHEVs, HFCVs can significantly reduce annual GHG emissions.•The transition from ICEVs to HFCVs in PVs could reduce emissions by up to 67.09% by 2050.•This study demonstrates significant advantages associated with the increasing market penetration of HFCVs.