Predicting of the spatio-temporal distribution of the Barbary partridge (Alectoris barbara) in Morocco under various bioclimatic scenarios

Like many bird species, climate change is negatively impacting Barbary partridge’s (Alectoris barbara) development and conservation in its natural environment. This study aims to analyse habitats and factors affecting presence of this species in different Moroccan regions. Data collected over four years (2021 to 2024) during hunting periods, supplemented with data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, the MaxEnt model and the geographic information system were used to predict the current and future distribution of partridge, with an evaluation of variables contributions using the jackknife test. Model accuracy was confirmed by a high AUC value, based on 1705 occurrence records. A strong correlation between the occurrence probability of Barbary partridge and eight climate variables is revealed, classified according to the ISPI index. The most influential variables are Min Temperature of Coldest-Month (0.401), followed by Max Temperature of Warmest-Month (0.185), Temperature Annual Range (0.17), Mean Temperature of Wettest-Quarter (0.164), Mean diurnal range (0.133), Temperature Seasonality (0.121), Annual Precipitation (0.118), and Mean Temperature of Coldest-Quarter (0.109). Potential distributions of partridge are concentrated in Rif and the Middle-Atlas mountainous, mainly in Tangier-Tetouan-AlHoceima and Fez-Meknes regions, where the climate is moderate. Rabat-Sale-Kenitra region is very promising due to its favorable environment. Arid areas show low presence due to drought and high temperatures. Under radiative forcing scenarios of the ACCESS-CM2 climate model, future distribution of partridge in Morocco shows significant variations among periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Thus, habitat area suitable for Barbary partridge is expected to show a significant upward trend.