Tree populations show low regeneration of valued species in West Africa

Tree populations have declined substantially in West Africa in recent decades, raising concerns since trees provide numerous ecosystem goods and services. Regional information on the population status of tree species could guide more effective conservation and regeneration of natural vegetation. Here, we report results of the first regional analysis of tree population structure across the Sahel and Sudan zones, a meta-study of vegetation inventories, including 23,586 individual trees sampled across nine countries. We evaluated current status and forecast future trends of 16 species and one genus of trees of ecological and socio-economic importance. Size class distribution (SCD) reflects the population structure of an individual species and can provide early warning of composition change and population decline. SCD is analysed widely at a local scale, but analysis at a regional scale is needed to detect widespread population changes. Many native species lacked trees in the smaller size classes, implying unsustainable populations and future decline. Some species show sound regeneration at the regional scale, but high variation among sites. Eight species, including Adansonia digitata and Afzelia africana, show regional declines in regeneration and risks of future extirpations. Four of these severely lack regeneration. Protected areas show higher tree regeneration, but protected status did not assure good regeneration. Our results identify priority tree species across West Africa, indicate a more urgent need for conservation and regeneration of native tree species, and highlight the benefit of effective conservation. More widespread protection could increase tree populations, conserving biodiversity, and ecosystem services essential for people's livelihoods. •This is the first regional scale analysis of size class distributions of West African tree species•There is a severe lack of regeneration for many valuable tree species•In West Africa declining tree populations have severe consequences for local people•Protected areas have positive effect on regeneration, although not a guarantee•Sites with good regeneration can function as models for managers in working in sites with less successful regeneration