Understanding migration aspirations using the extended theory of planned behavior: A case study from Western Province of Zambia

Migration is a crucial livelihood diversification strategy that can improve the living standards of many households in rural areas of the Global South. However, while most research focuses on international migration, less attention is paid to why people migrate internally or end up staying put. Contextual factors that can greatly affect the decision to migrate or stay in a given location have also been neglected. This paper attempts to contribute to understanding the complex drivers behind internal migration aspirations in rural regions with relatively immobile populations despite challenging economical and environmental conditions acting as potential drivers of migration. We link the theory of planned behavior with the aspiration-capability framework to propose a new integrative framework of factors affecting intentions to migrate. We then test the proposed framework through structural equation modeling using data from structured interviews with representatives of 460 rural households from the Western Province of Zambia. Our results suggest that the components of the theory of planned behavior have a mediating role in shaping internal migration aspirations. Their consideration allows for a deeper understanding of the complex drivers of internal migration and reveals how individual contextual variables can have conflicting effects on aspirations to move. •Addressing internal migration in rural areas with low migration rates.•Extension of TPB by migration-related and general contextual factors.•Deeper understanding of interdependent, non-linear, and indirect migration drivers.•TPB variables are important predictors and mediators of aspirations to move.•Single factors have contradictory direct and indirect effects.