The trajectories of neighborhood change in historic districts within a growing context

Local historic districts to preserve the character of built environments in neighborhoods function as certifying their historical significance and controlling their transformations. These functions can influence the physical fabric of neighborhoods, and their impacts may extend to socioeconomic characteristics. This study investigates the relationship between the designation of local historic districts and neighborhood change within the context of growth by exploring socioeconomic transitions in eight Western cities. Based on six neighborhood types identified by k-means cluster analysis with tract-level data between 1970 and 2020, I examine neighborhood trajectories of local historic districts compared to undesignated neighborhoods and the distinct trends in neighborhood change by the phases of district designation. This research finds that neighborhoods with local historic districts were more likely to experience upgrading movements than undesignated neighborhoods, especially prevalent during and after designation compared to the pre-designation period. The trajectories of neighborhood change in local historic districts also varied across the neighborhood types, implying a greater possibility of gentrification and displacement in unstable lower-income neighborhoods. These results highlight the potential influence of local historic districts as a catalyst for neighborhood change, requesting an integrated approach to mitigate the socioeconomic impacts of district designation for equitable and inclusive preservation practices. •Study uses k-means cluster approach with multivariate longitudinal data (1970–2020).•Local historic districts had a catalytic function for neighborhood ascent.•Study show disparities in neighborhood stability across local historic districts.•The pattern of neighborhood change differs by phases of district designation.