Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations, serving as pivotal centers of human activity, undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization. Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants. Here, we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration during 1990–2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value (ESV). By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies, we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model in three scenarios in 2025 and 2030. Results show that: 1) from 1990 to 2020, land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of construction land to cultivated land. Among the reduced cultivated land, 82.2% were occupied by construction land. 2) The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan (RMB) in ESV during 1990–2020. Moreover, the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value, accounting for 13% of the total ESV loss. 3) From 2020 to 2030, land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province. Under the BAU (natural development) and ED (cultivated land protection) scenarios, construction land expansion remains dominant. In contrast, under the EP (ecological protection) scenario, the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly. Among the different scenarios, ESV is highest in the EP scenario, making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use. It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban, agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination. Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.