Research and application of a novel graph convolutional RVFL and evolutionary equilibrium optimizer algorithm considering spatial factors in ultra-short-term solar power prediction

With the increasing proportion of photovoltaic power generation, solar power prediction systems have become more important. Accurate photovoltaic power prediction can assist the grid dispatch department in formulating effective power scheduling plans, improving grid stability and the capacity to accommodate solar energy. To address the challenges in solar power generation forecasting, the paper proposes a new neural network model called Graph Convolutional Random Vector Functional Link (GCRVFL). The output layer of this model includes both nonlinear transformed features from the hidden layer and the original input features, while also considering the spatial characteristics among photovoltaic sites. Furthermore, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is utilized to decompose the original solar power time series, extracting different component sequences from the photovoltaic power time series. Opposite based learning and cross-mutation are employed to improve the original Equilibrium Optimizer (EO) algorithm, resulting in an Evolutionary Equilibrium Optimizer (EEO) algorithm. The EEO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight threshold of GCRVFL, leading to a novel photovoltaic power prediction model called SSA-EEO-GCRVFL. Through four datasets and eight control experiments, it can be observed that the proposed model achieves the best predictive performance and is capable of fulfilling the task of photovoltaic power prediction. •A novel photovoltaic power prediction model called GCRVFL has been proposed.•SSA has been applied to decompose photovoltaic power data.•EO has been improved by incorporating adversarial learning and crossover mutation.•The weight threshold of GCRVFL is optimized using EEO.