Debris flow susceptibility based on the connectivity of potential material sources in the Dadu River Basin

The Dadu River Basin (DRB) is an important economic corridor on the Chuanxi Plateau. The DRB is located in the highly changeable terrain of the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and is often threatened by debris flows. To mitigate the damage of debris flow disasters to the construction and operation of large infrastructures such as railways, roads and hydropower stations in the DRB, it is necessary to evaluate debris flow susceptibility. The connectivity of potential material sources (CPMS), which proxies the possibility of potential material transfer from the source to the outlet, was calculated using an improved index of connectivity, excess topography and brittle fracture index to identify and quantify debris flow susceptibility. The results show that the IC and the gully scale have a Logartihmic function in the DRB, in which IC decreases as the catchment area increases. In 3967 gullies of the Dadu River and its tributaries, the total connectivity of potential material sources (TCPMS) could be used to distinguish between debris flow gullies and non-debris flow gullies (AUC = 0.748). The TCPMS and average connectivity of potential material sources (ACPMS) were used to classify the scale and activity intensity of the 2398 debris flow gullies into four levels. The moderate- and high-activity intensity and large- and extra large-scale debris flows are mainly distributed in Danba, Luding and Kangding. The results of this study provide reference and evidence for the identification and evaluation of debris flow susceptibility. •A new method for assessing debris flow susceptibility based on potential material sources and sediment connectivity.•The quantitative relationship between the scale of debris flow and conditioning factors.•The contribution of excess topography was considered.