The future scenario of an iconic tree from the Brazilian Cerrado: perspectives on Eremanthus Less. (Asteraceae) conservation

Characterized as one of the largest biodiversity hot spots, the Cerrado ecoregion is home to a wide variety of endemic species. Several threats such as agricultural expansion and habitat fragmentation put the species of the Cerrado ecosystems and biodiversity at risk. Thus, this study analysed the genus Eremanthus , which has abundant species in the Cerrado and suffers from intense anthropogenic pressure due to overexploitation, mainly as a material utilized for the construction of fences and the extraction of essential oils. Environmental suitability was estimated for the genus for the present and future (2070), in order to characterize the importance of the climate in the species distribution and to analyse the conservation status of the genus. The Species Distribution Modelling and Gap Analysis showed that the areas of environmental suitability are limited and are found in a matrix composed of a high presence of anthropic activity, which can intensify the loss of species habitat and increase the vulnerability of the group. The studied species were classified as Endangered and Vulnerable according to IUCN criteria, presenting very reduced areas of environmental suitability projected in the future and a low percentage of species in protected areas, that may influence possible species extinctions in the genus. Thus, this study provides insights to assist in conservation planning and reinforces the importance of protecting the biodiversity of the Cerrado.