Novel extended hybrid tool for real time control and practically support decisions to reduce GHG emissions in full scale wastewater treatment plants

In this paper, a novel methodology and extended hybrid model for the real time control, prediction and reduction of direct emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is proposed to overcome the lack of long-term data availability in several full-scale case studies. A mechanistic model (MCM) and a machine learning (ML) model are combined to real time control, predict the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as effluent quality (COD – chemical oxygen demand, NH4-N – ammonia, NO3-N - nitrate) in activated sludge method. For methane (CH4), using the MCM model, predictions are performed on the input data (VFA, CODs for aerobic and anaerobic compartments) to the MLM model. Additionally, scenarios were analyzed to assess and reduce the GHGs emissions related to the biological processes. A real WWTP, with a population equivalent (PE) of 125,000, was studied for the validation of the hybrid model. A global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the MCM and a ML model were implemented to assess GHGs emission mechanisms the biological reactor. Finally, an early warning tool for the prediction of GHGs errors was implemented to assess the accuracy and the reliability of the proposed algorithm. The results could support the wastewater treatment plant operators to evaluate possible mitigation scenarios (MS) that can reduce direct GHG emissions from WWTPs by up to 21%, while maintaining the final quality standard of the treated effluent. [Display omitted] •ML model to predict and control GHGs (N2O, CH4, CO2) and effluent in real time.•Early Warning System for process control considering GHGs prediction errors.•GHGs emissions prediction on the basis of coefficients of sensitivity.•Technological improvements to reduce GHG footprint.•A novel algorithm for developing an integrated decision support system for WWTPs.