A case study of using artificial neural networks to predict heavy metal pollution in Lake Iznik

Artificial neural networks offer a viable route in assessing and understanding the presence and concentration of heavy metals that can cause dangerous complications in the wider context of water quality prediction for the sustainability of the ecosystem. In order to estimate the heavy metal concentrations in Iznik Lake, which is an important water source for the surrounding communities, characterization data were taken from five different water sources flowing into the lake between 2015 and 2021. These characterization results were evaluated with IBM SPSS Statistics 23 software, with the addition of the lake water quality system. For this purpose, seven distinct physicochemical parameters were measured and monitored in Karasu, Kırandere, Olukdere and Sölöz water sources flowing into the lake, to serve as input data. Concentration levels of 15 distinct heavy metals in Karsak Stream originating from the lake were as the output. Specifically, Sn for Karasu (0.999), Sb for Kırandere (1.000), Cr for Olukdere (1.000) and Pb and Se for Sölöz (0.995) indicate parameter estimation R 2 coefficients close to 1.000. Sn stands out as the common heavy metal parameter with best estimation prospects. Given the importance of the independent variable in estimating heavy metal pollution, conductivity, COD, COD and temperature stood out as the most effective parameters for Karasu, Olukdere, Kırandere and Sölöz, respectively. The ANN model emerges as a good prediction tool that can be used effectively in determining the heavy metal pollution in the lake as part of the efforts to protect the water budget of Lake Iznik and to eliminate the existing pollution.